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Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory

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Wild Oats is published 40 times per year by Wild Oats Publishing, 905 - 167 Lombard Avenue, Winnipeg R3B 0V3. Tel. (204) 942-1459 Fax (204) 942-7652 E-mail: wildoats@canadagrain.com Information is secured from sources believed reliable, but 100% accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Persons associated with Wild Oats deal commercially with businesses active in Prairie grain markets and may hold positions on their own accounts in commodities discussed herein. ISSN 1185-2194 Copyright 2022. All rights reserved. The Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory is protected by copyright. Copying, retransmission or redistribution, in whole or in part, without the prior written approval of Wild Oats Publishing is strictly prohibited.

Manitoba Farmgate Prices Prices are FOB farm, unless noted otherwise, as of December 13, 2022. Your local rate may differ. Basis Net Per Bushel Canola: Prices under Jan at $876 Del Elevator 10 - 47 829 - 866 18.81 - 19.65 Fall 2023 (Del Elev) 15 - 25 801 - 811 18.17 - 18.39 Bunge (del) Altona: $19.30 (Dec); $19.57 (Jan); $19.69 (Mar) Harrowby: $19.28 (Dec); $19.51 (Feb); $18.19 - 18.26 (Fall 2023) Nexera: $21.32 - 21.68 (Dec); $21.62 - 21.82 (Mar); $21.37 (Fall 2023) Barley Feed Del Elevator 344 - 356 7.50 - 7.75 Malt Del Elevator: $9.00 del (Jan); $9.15 (Mar); Fall 2023: $8.00 Wheat Feed Del Elevator 331 - 404 9.00 - 11.00 Milling Wheat (Del Elev) CWRS #1 423 - 434 11.52 - 11.82 CWRW #2 (del) 414 11.28 Flax $18.52 del; $19.00 - 20.00 del Sk Oats $4.10 - 4.45 del; Fall 2023: $4.55 del Corn $7.00; $8.75 - 9.36 del; Fall 2023: $7.25 - 7.39 Soybeans $18.86 - 19.31 del; Fall 2023: $16.54 - 17.27 Lentils Laird #1: 50 - 52¢ del; #2: 50 - 52¢ del; X3: 45 - 47¢ del; #3: 40 - 42¢ del Eston: #1: 44 - 49¢ del; #2: 45.5 - 48¢ del; X3: 32 - 34¢ del; #3: 32 - 34¢ del Richlea: #1: 40 - 51¢ del; #2: 37 - 47¢ del; X3: 32 - 34¢ del; #3: 32 - 34¢ del Crimson: #2+: 33 - 35¢ del; X3: 31 - 33¢ del; #3: 28 - 30¢ del Canary Seed 37 - 39¢; 40 - 41¢ del Peas: Green: $13.00 - 14.00 del Sk; Fall 2023: $11.60 - 12.00 del Sk Yellow: $12.00 - 13.20 del Sk; Fall 2023: $10.00 - 11.00 del Sk Feed: $10.00 - 12.45 del Mustard Yellow: $1.05 - 1.20 del Sk; Fall 2023 (FOB Farm Sk): 85 - 87¢ Brown: $1.00 - 1.15 del Sk; Fall 2023 (FOB Farm Sk): 78 - 80¢ Oriental: $1.05 - 1.20 del Sk; Fall 2023 (FOB Farm Sk): 76 - 78¢ Delivered North Dakota Plant/Elevator - $US/bu [$CND/bu in brackets] DNS [14%]: $8.67 - 8.98 [$11.75 - 12.178]; Fall 2023: $8.03 - 8.19 [$10.89-11.10] Durum: $8.00 - 10.00 [$10.85 - 13.56] Flax: $15.00 - 16.50 [$20.48 - 22.53] Corn: $5.84 - 6.29 [$7.92 - 8.53]; Fall 2023: $5.13 - 5.37 [$6.95 - 7.28] Barley Feed: $4.00 - 5.26 [$5.42 - 7.13]; Malt: $4.50 - 6.01 [$6.10 - 8.15] Soybeans: $14.20-14.54 [$19.25-19.71]; Fall 2023: $12.97-13.12 [$17.58-17.79] Canola: $13.68 - 14.80 [$18.54 - 20.06]; Fall 2023: $12.50-13.14 [$16.95-17.81] Sunflower NuSun: 21.9 - 24.4¢ [29.6 - 33.1¢]; Fall 2023: 23.3-26.4¢ [31.5-35.7¢] Peas Yellow: $8.50 - 11.25 [$11.53 - 15.25] Peas Green: $8.50 - 11.00 [$11.53 - 14.91] Pinto: 34.0 - 35.0¢ [46.1 - 47.4¢]; Navy: 38.0¢ [51.5¢] Black: 40.0 - 42.0¢ [54.2 - 56.9¢] Kidney Lgt Red: 46.0 - 50.0¢ [62.4 - 67.8¢]; Drk Red: 45.0 - 48.0¢ [61.0 - 65.1¢] Saskatchewan Farmgate Prices Prices are FOB farm, unless noted otherwise, as of December 13, 2022. Your local rate may differ. Basis Net Per Bushel Canola: Prices under Jan at $876 Del Elevator 16 - 43 833 - 860 18.90 - 19.51 Fall 2023 (Del) 13 - 49 777 - 813 17.62 - 18.43 Bunge (Del) Nipawin: $19.51 (Dec); $19.42 (Jan) Dixon: $19.20 (Feb); $19.29 (Mar); $18.01 - 18.06 (Fall 2023) Nexera: $20.74- 21.04 (Dec); $20.63 - 21.31 (Mar); $20.65 (Fall 2023) Barley Feed Del Elevator 344 - 367 7.48 - 8.00 Fall 2023 (del) 312 - 322 6.80 - 7.00 Malt (Del): $8.30 (Feb); $8.40 (Apr) Wheat Feed Del Elevator 367 - 413 10.00 - 11.25 FOB Farm 367 - 404 10.00 - 11.00 Milling (Del) CWRS #1 417 - 431 11.36 - 11.73 Fall 2023 370 - 375 10.08 - 10.21 CPRS #1 391 - 412 10.65 - 11.20 Durum 484 - 498 13.17 - 13.56 Fall 2023: not quoted Flax $17.00 - 19.00; $19.00 - 20.00 del Oats $3.46 - 3.64 del; Feed (Spot): $3.25 - 3.75 Lentils Laird #1: 50 - 52¢ del; #2: 48 - 50¢; 50 - 52¢ del; X3: 45 - 47¢ del #3: 40 - 42¢ del Eston: #1: 46 - 48¢; 44 - 49¢ del; #2: 45.5 - 48¢ del; X3: 32 - 34¢ del #3: 32 - 34¢ del Richlea: #1: 40 - 51¢ del; #2: 37 - 47¢ del; X3: 32 - 34¢ del; #3: 32 - 34¢ del Crimson: #2+: 32 - 33¢; 33 - 35¢ del; X3: 31 - 33¢ del; #3: 28 - 30¢ del Canary Seed 37 - 39¢; 40 - 41¢ del Peas Green: $13.00 - 14.00 del; Fall 2023: $11.60 - 12.00 del Yellow: $12.00 - 13.20 del; Fall 2023: $10.00 - 11.00 del Feed Peas: $10.00 - 12.45 del Chickpeas Kabuli (del): 10mm: 55 - 55.5¢; 9mm: 54 - 55¢; 8mm: 52 - 53¢ Mustard Yellow: $1.15 - 1.18; $1.05 - 1.20 del; Fall 2023: 88 - 87¢; 85 - 88¢ del Brown: $1.10 - 1.18; $1.00 - 1.15 del; Fall 2023: 78 - 80¢; 75 - 80¢ del Oriental: $1.10 - 1.20; $1.05 - 1.20 del; Fall 2023: 76 - 78¢; 75 - 80¢ del Alberta Farmgate Prices Prices are FOB farm, unless noted otherwise, as of December 13, 2022. Your local rate may differ. Basis Net Per Bushel Canola: Prices under Jan at $876 Del Elevator 5 - 46 831 - 871 18.84 - 19.76 Bunge 5 871 19.76 Fall 2023 (Del Elev) 18 - 42 784 - 808 17.78 - 18.33 Nexera (Del): $21.35 (Dec-Jan); $21.06 (Mar); $21.07 (Fall 2023) Barley Feed Del Elevator 337 - 450 7.34 - 9.80 Lethbridge 440 - 450 9.58 - 9.80 Vermillion 415 - 428 9.04 - 9.32 Rycroft 337 - 415 7.34 - 9.04 Fall 2023 (Del) 312 - 322 6.80 - 7.00 Malt Del: $8.60 (Feb);8.70 -8.75 (Apr); Fall 2023 (Del): $7.40 - 7.80 Wheat Feed Del Elevator 367 - 460 10.00 - 12.52 Lethbridge 440 - 460 11.97 - 12.52 Red Deer 441 - 450 12.00 - 12.25 Viking 367 10.00 FOB Farm; not quoted Milling (Del Elev) CWRS #1 420 - 439 11.42 - 11.95 Fall 2023 370 - 405 10.08 - 11.01 CPRS #2 402 - 418 10.95 - 11.37 Fall 2023 349 - 350 9.50 - 9.53 Durum 497 - 499 13.52 - 13.57 Oats Del Elevator 243 - 335 3.75 - 5.17 Edmonton 285 - 335 4.40 - 5.17 Viking 243 3.75 Fall 2023 259 4.00 Flax: $17.10 del Corn: $11.66 del Lentils Laird #1: 50 - 52¢ del Sk; #2: 50 - 52¢ del Sk; X3: 45 - 47 del Sk #3: 40 - 42¢ del Eston: #1: 44 - 49¢ del Sk; #2: 45.5 - 48¢ del Sk; X3: 32 - 34¢ del Sk #3: 32 - 34¢ del Richlea: #1: 40 - 51¢ del Sk; #2: 37 - 47¢ del Sk; X3: 32 - 34¢ del Sk #3: 32 - 34¢ del Crimson: #2+: 33 - 35¢ del Sk; X3: 31 - 33¢ del Sk; #3: 28 - 30¢ del Sk Canary Seed 37 - 39¢; 40 - 41¢ del Peas Green: $13.00 - 14.00 del Sk; Fall 2023: $11.60 - 12.00 del Sk Yellow: $12.00 - 13.20 del Sk; Fall 2023: $10.00 - 11.00 del Sk Feed: $12.31 - 13.20 del Mustard Yellow: $1.05 - 1.20 del Sk; Fall 2023: 85 - 87¢ FOB Farm Sk Brown: $1.00 - 1.15 del Sk; Fall 2023: 78 - 80¢ FOB Farm Sk Oriental: $1.05 - 1.20 del Sk; Fall 2023: 76 - 78¢ FOB Farm Sk Delivered Montana Elevator - $US/bu [ $CND/bu in brackets ] DNS [14%]: $8.26 - 9.02 [$11.20 - 12.23]; Durum: $9.00 - 9.50 [$12.20 - 12.88] HRW [13%]: $7.82 - 8.94 [$10.60 - 12.12] Barley: Feed: $6.25 - 6.50 [$8.47 - 8.81]; Malt: $7.50 - 7.60 [$10.17 - 10.30]

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From the Floor Opinion derived from traders If our government's action sometimes makes you wonder, well it could be worse. In Mexico a new "clean everything up" President decreed that GM corn could not be imported, starting in 2024. Mexico is a large buyer, taking over 16 million tonnes, annually. This is irrational and purely emotional and will hurt Mexican corn users and consumers, American farmers and growers of feed grains around the world. It is so destructive that it will presumably never be implemented. In the United States, the Biden administration last week gave $36 billion dollars of taxpayers' money to bail out the Teamsters' Union pension plan that had run out of money because of underfunding. It was the payoff for legislating an end to the proposed national rail strike. On second thought, perhaps $36 bln is cheap. After all, it'll be up to another administration to deal with the precedent that unions can shake down the government. Street Smart - Gary Halvorson If we're going to use more renewable diesel fuel we need 9 mln more acres of soybeans. Gary Halvorson is a vice-president of CHS Inc.

Renewable Diesel Production Surges Renewable diesel - diesel that is green and low carbon - production is surging. It has doubled in the past year and likely to hit 5.5 billion gallons by 2026 in the United States. It is driven by state low-carbon fuel mandates and has the potential to do to soybean use what ethanol did to corn use 20 years ago.

INTERNET EDITION

Volume 30 Number 16 December 13, 2022

Re-broadcast, re-distribution and/or forwarding of the Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory, including internally within offices and organizations, is prohibited.

Oat Market Slow - John Duvenaud Remember the new-crop oats market last spring? The 2021 oat crop had been a disaster and established commercial oat processors were hard- pressed to keep their facilities running. Meanwhile a few new oat milk processors had been built in the United States and the MBAs running them were determined that wouldn't happen to them. Accordingly, you could contract new-crop oats for $7.50/bu in the Red River Valley and $7/bu in northeast Saskatchewan right during seeding. Lots of farmers took advantage and lots of oats were contracted. As it turned out, 2022 was a great oat production year. Contracted oats have been pouring onto the system since harvest started. Even today, in the middle of December, it's difficult to move oats. You can probably sell them, for maybe $5/bu but delivery will be Jan/Feb/Mar. If you want to move your oats today you may be able to move them, in the feed market, for $3.50 - $4.00/bu, but delivery may still be Jan/Feb. Oats prices have had a pretty good tumble. They were still trading in the $7/bu range last summer but as the crop developed prices tanked. By September they were trading from under $4.00/bu to close to $5.00. They were generally flat through fall but have eased a further 50 cents/bu in just the last week, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. The feed market is interesting. Barley trades around $7.50/bu fob farm in Saskatchewan so $4.00/bu oats make sense. Logistics, however, are a problem. There was a flurry of movement of oats to Feedlot Alley in Alberta earlier this fall but volumes dropped off after the first corn trains started arriving. It's hard to know how many oats have moved into the feed market. The numbers work but it's all private sales and shipping and therefore there are no public records. All we can say is that some amount of milling oats have been taken off the market. In comparison to the 4.6 million tonnes we produced it might not be that significant. On the other hand, total feed use in Canada is enormous. Between barley, feed wheat, peas and imported corn it totals some 12 million tonnes so even minimal participation of oats could be a sizable number. The short ( and medium) term trend in oat prices is down and it is not inconceivable that prices go even lower. Prairie Crop Charts says Saskatchewan elevator prices for milling oats compared to CBT corn futures are testing their cheapest levels in a decade. Wheat, barley and peas are, more or less, in line with CBT corn. Oats are off-the-charts cheap. It may be that the worst of the decline is behind us. Wild Oats is 40% priced on oats. We're reluctant to recommend an additional sale when you can't move them anyway. The prairie oat industry is plugged but there's a big commercial oat-using industry in North America. They will have to replenish their raw material supplies before spring so don't write off the year quite yet. New-crop is where the opportunity lies. At $4.20/bu, where you can contract it today, not many farmers are going to plant oats this spring. Not with $12.00/bu spring wheat new-crop bids. The trade is worried about new-crop oats. Do not sign up your new-crop oats.

than offset an increase in Australian output. With the Black Sea shipping agreements holding, Ukraine and Russian exports were raised. Global coarse grain production is reduced and only partially offset by lower consumption. Ending stocks are 3% lower than beginning. Ukraine corn was seeded after the onset of hostilities and as a result production is down sharply. The harvesting of both Ukraine and Russian corn has been plagued by wet weather. Oilseed production was lowered as an increase in soybean output was offset by lower forecasts for most other oilseeds. Russians Attack Odessa Port Over the weekend Russian missiles damaged export facilities at the Ukrainian port of Odessa. Wheat futures surged on Monday. Good Week for Futures All grain and oilseed futures are stronger in the past week with the best gains in wheat. The Russian attacks in Odessa had all wheats strongly higher in Monday trade. Funds had been heavily short wheat and rebuying of those shorts accelerated the buying. Chicago was down today (Tuesday) but Minneapolis is higher again. The U.S. hard red spring carryout is estimated at 119 mln bushels by USDA, the lowest level since 2008. Canola, beanoil and soybeans are all strongly higher. It rained in Argentina, which should be bearish but the main effect seemed to be an unwrapping of the short meal/long soyoil spread. Soymeal had been on fire, climbing $30/ton on the last week before losing $20 on Monday. Soyoil is currently very strong.

Statistics Canada Confirms Barley Production Near 10.0 million mt - Jerry Klassen Canadian farmers harvested a barley crop of 9.986 million tonnes this past fall, up from the 2021 output of 7.0 mmt and up from the five-year average of 9.2 million. We were expecting a crop size of 10.0 mmt, therefore, this was not a surprise to the trade. We project the 2022/23 barley carryout to finish near 1.5 mmt, up from the five-year average of 1.2 mmt. We expect the barley market to remain under pressure with U.S. corn actively trading into Southern Alberta. U.S. corn is trading into Southern Alberta in the range of $455-$462/mt. This past week, barley was trading at $440- $450/mt delivered Lethbridge for Jan/March delivery. For September through December positions, feed barley was trading in the range of $390-$395/mt. In Central Alberta, feedlot operators were showing bids of $410-$420/mt. Elevators were showing bids for $340-$350/mt for September through December delivery. The Black Sea Grain Initiative was extended by 120 days ensuring smooth exports until the latter half of March 2023. Ukraine feed barley is offered at US$260/tonne fob Black Sea port for January shipment, down approximately US$30/tonne from mid-November. French feed barley is offered at US$295/tonne, down US$23/tonne from mid- November. The world market has been trending lower since the Black Sea Initiative was extended. Wild Oats is 60% sold on feed and malt barley. We are expecting the barley market to trend lower into spring. Sell 20% of Durum Production Sell 20% of your durum bringing total sales to 60%. Durum production came in at 5.4 million tonnes on Statistics Canada’s final crop survey. This was below the September model-based survey of 6.1 mmt and below the five-year average of 6.0 million tonnes. If we account for carryin stocks, total supplies for the 2022/23 crop year are estimated at 5.8 mmt, down from the five-year average of 7.4 mmt. The lower production estimate was a shock to the trade. Durum prices have strengthened since the Statistics Canada production report. The durum market is incorporating a risk premium due to the lower production estimate. The market may have to ration demand given the fact that all three major durum exporters had production below the five-year average. We want to be selling into this strength. Algeria and Tunisia are expected to tender over the next couple of weeks. This will set the price structure moving forward. We want to bring sales to 60% and we still have 40% for a major rally. Keep in mind that prices are at the highest levels for the crop year. We are selling into the upper third of the price range for the crop year. Remember, European and North African harvests begin in the latter half of May. The critical period for yield development for these crops is March. At the same time, the durum market will need to encourage acreage in Canada and the U.S. for 2023/24. We are planning to make our next 20% sale in spring. Wild Oats always leaves 20% until the upcoming crop is more certain.

American Supply/Demand USDA - December 9, 2022 Corn Wheat 21/22 22/23 22/23 21/22 22/22 22/23 Dec Nov Dec Dec Nov Dec Production 14,182 14,750 14,996 1,826 1,697 1,697 Supply 16,127 15,892 16,209 2,955 2,686 2,676 Feed 5,725 5,625 5,700 97 160 160 Ethanol 5,035 5,200 5,200 Exports 2,745 2,400 2,475 992 875 875 Total Use 14,940 14,650 14,800 2,111 2,059 2,061 Carryout 1,187 1,242 1,408 844 626 615 Soybeans Production 4,136 4,339 4,374 Supply 4,680 4,533 4,574 Crush 2,140 2,205 2,180 Export 2,260 2,055 2,090 Total Use 4,505 4,378 4,388 Carryout 175 155 185 Note: Units in million bushels Adjustments were limited. There was minimal reaction in futures. Wheat ending stocks were unchanged, 3% below beginning stocks. Corn components of domestic demand were unchanged but in view of slow sales to date exports were lowered and ending stocks raised by 6% but still 9% below beginning stocks. Soybeans were unchanged with ending stocks 1% below beginning stocks. Anticipated adjustments to U.S. ..biofuel programs are expected to result in lower soybean oil use for this purpose which together with lower exports is expected to result in an increase in ending stocks for soyoil. USDA Global Report Mildly Bearish The global outlook for wheat is for reduced supplies, lower consumption and a small reduction in ending stocks, now 3% above beginning stocks. Lower estimates for Canadian and Argentine harvests more

0.05 0.08 860. 18.70 6.00 865. 15.50 845. 8.80 - 0.13 0.61 6.40 0.28 0.15 8.90 0.45 0.34 0.55 6.45 0.25 0.17 9.00 7.45 0.43 0.50 6.50 0.23 0.19 0.37 6.60 0.18 0.25 9.20 0.43 6.55 0.20 0.22 9.30 7.55 9.40 7.60 0.36 0.37 6.65 0.16 0.28 9.50 0.21 0.48 0.34 6.70 0.15 0.31 7.65 0.34 0.49 Puts Canola Options Corn Options Jan 876.30 Mar 6.54 Soybean Options Jan 14.80 Calls Puts Calls Calls 12.70 10.00 0.12 7.80 850. 14.60 38.20 33.90 35.70 0.22 875. 10.20 12.50 0.17 880. 8.10 15.40 14.80 14.90 0.36 885. 6.40 18.70 0.29 890. 6.50 22.30 44.50 26.70 870. Calls Puts 40.80 31.50 47.40 36.40 33.30 39.00 31.00 41.70 14.70 875. Canola Options Mar 858.50 14.50 855. 860. 865. 870. 28.80 0.16 0.12 15.00 15.10 0.09 0.06 Calls 0.35 0.28 0.22 14.60 0.36 14.70 0.41 Puts Soybean Options Mar 14.85 Puts 14.80 0.46 14.90 0.51 0.46 15.00 0.57 15.10 0.63 0.41 15.20 0.69 CBOT Wht Options Mar 7.51 Calls Puts 7.35 0.47 0.32 7.40 7.50 0.40 0.40 0.46 0.38 MGEX Wht Options Mar 9.23 Calls Puts - 0.17 0.43 0.20 0.30 0.29 0.36 - 0.42 0.33