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Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory
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![Meal (ZCE) Change* Contract Int. Open Hi Low Change* +4 700 Oil 588 Soybeans 585 576 584 41 Low 9.99 n.c. 669 577 714 587 586 Change* Contract Low Int. Hi -14.95 44999 +14344 48139 -44695 8.59 5.27 408.49 -17.03 5.41 -16.48 +0.09 20289 -10462 8.60 +0.05 5.63 China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ($U.S.) Close Low 400 Wheat Dec 5.87 Open Mar 627.10 -21.20 Minneapolis Grain Exchange HRW Jan 629.80 -21.80 HRS Mar 6.06 Close Change* +0.04 8881 +1051 8.03 Close +1249 7.62 +35847 Int. Hi +6616 Change* +0.06 Jan 290.4 +5106 196.40 +1.73 72337 175.53 8.28 5.86 6.00 4.26 Mar 4.38 -0.02 620186 -0.02 Wheat May Jul 342.71 Rapeseed 347.54 Soybeans Jan 14.64 Jul Jul 14.93 Jul Jan 332.07 Mar 335.25 -6.55 7.82 8.09 +0.04 May 390.94 -13.96 7.74 +0.06 8.00 +0.05 291.3 174403 293.8 384.8 +29249 174806 +14281 50.55 Dec 288.6 -4.3 116055 -1.39 70237 +1236 -0.12 39.00 Mar 45.18 -1.39 128655 +8233 49.86 38.08 9.80 16026 +2159 21583 27205 +5921 +3430 799 10.21 -0.11 Nov Jan Mar 10.09 Jul -0.14 Close Hi 47764 +8058 10.34 119044 767 -7404 -23.40 -25.80 Winnipeg Grain Exchange Chicago Board of Trade Open Change* Contract Close Change* Int. Canola Jan 629.80 790 772 -28.60 653.20 Nov Jul 658.00 May 6.16 628.80 May May 14.82 Soybean Meal 404.62 5.86 +0.07 35808 Mar 642.70 -28.40 -24.80 Soybean Mar 14.67 -0.49 409.31 5.55 5.77 +0.07 40040 38.87 97883 -46275 51.26 10.13 +4327 356160 +19049 240923 +16857 12.88 13.21 9.96 55213 87181 -0.13 10.17 12.42 Jan 44.92 -1.42 44.84 -1.39 Dec +3972 12.01 Mar 5.70 +0.09 137219 Kansas City Board of Trade Close Change* Open Change* Dec -0.45 -0.47 May Soymeal -0.53 May Dec -6.70 Jan Mar Jul -7.82 Corn -6.41 Change* Contract 5.49 5.58 +0.11 7.84 7.53 73149 Dec Feb 82.88 -3.45 123662 Jun 72.14 -0.14 3084 Dollar Mar 64.75 +21359 81.95 66.63 Canadian Apr 87.10 -3.03 +3713 85.50 72.68 76.04 +523 74.85 71.86 342325 71.92 71.66 -0.14 Mar 71.31 -0.13 7654 +1592 [*Futures for November 19, 2024. Change since November 12, 2024] 76.09 71.57 +11114 Lean Hogs Dec 79.55 -2.80 65426 -32039 79.60 Apr 189.43 +29327 194.85 177.48 Jul 6.26 +0.04 5710 +1823 8.22 6.14 Feb 188.00 +1.88 136437 61063 -43729 193.98 172.25 Live Cattle Dec 186.76 +2.36 48 Change* Contract Hi Low 4.22 3.17 +7 +0.03 2501 Open Close Change* Int. Chicago Merchantile Exchange Jul 3.66 +0.06 May 3.64 Mar 3.61 4.17 3.12 7.72 5.54 7.55 5.60 3.06 4.65 3.08 5.84 -0.01 70844 -9 +6254 +447 3.45 n.c. +0.03 181 5.77 n.c. 64204 +16360 +57658 6.97 5.42 5.50 -0.02 Mar 5.68 +0.01 211039 4.49 -0.02 198781 5.21 +13411 5.20 4.22 301.4 5.65 3.97 +89161 5.38 4.15 413176 4.27 4.45 -0.02 194186 Corn Dec Oats Dec May Wheat Dec May Jul Jul 49.51 939 -1005 5.09 -130571 +13627 5.28 89922 -64782 7.99 77320 +10620 378.6 -53649 409.2 May 298.4 -4.5 -4.8 38.38 Mar 294.3 -4.7 134733 +14351 379.9 297.5 May 45.38](index_html_files/20168.png)
Manitoba Farmgate Prices
Prices are FOB farm, unless noted otherwise, as of November 19, 2024. Your local rate may differ.
Basis
Net
Per Bushel
Canola: Prices under Jan at $630
Del Elevator
18 - 57
573 - 612
12.99 - 13.88
Bunge (del): Altona: $13.89 (Dec); $13.94 (Jan); $14.53 (May)
Harrowby: $13.56; $13.67 (Dec); $13.85 (Jan); $14.07 (Mar)
Nexera: $16.56 - 16.73 (Dec); $16.56 - 16.73 (Jan)
Barley
Feed Del Elevator
184 - 207
4.00 - 4.50
Malt Del Elevator not quoted
Wheat
Feed Del Elevator
243
6.62
FOB Farm
239 - 257
6.50 - 7.00
Milling Wheat (Del)
CWRS #1
276 - 288
7.51 - 7.84
CWRW #2 (Del)
250
6.80
Flax: $17.48 del
Oats
$4.00 - 4.50; $4.48 del
Rye: not quoted
Corn
$5.15 - 5.35; $4.85 - 5.44 del
Soybeans
$11.89 - 12.24 del
Lentils
Laird #1: 55.5 - 58¢ del; #2: 55.5 - 60¢ del; X3: 47 - 53.5¢ del
#3: 37 - 49.5¢ del
Eston (del): #1: 47.5 - 50¢ del; #2: 46.5 - 48.5¢ del; X3: 38.5 - 40.5¢ del
#3: 34.5 - 36.5¢ del
Richlea (del): #1: 51.5 - 53¢; #2: 50.5 - 54¢; X3: 42.5 - 43.5¢; #3: 32.5 - 38.5¢
Crimson: #2+: 32 - 34¢ del; X3: 28 - 30.5¢ del; #3: 24 - 27.5¢ del
Canary Seed
30 - 31¢; 30.75 - 32¢ del
Peas
Green: $14.50 - 16.00 del Sk; Yellow: $9.50 - 11.00 del Sk
Feed: not quoted
Mustard
Yellow: 41 - 43¢ del Sk
Brown: 32 - 33¢ del Sk
Oriental: 30 - 32¢ del Sk
Dry Edible Beans (del)
Navy: 52.5 - 55.25¢; Pinto: 42.5 - 44.5¢; Black: 48.5 - 51.25¢
Sm Red: 57.5 - 60.5¢
Delivered North Dakota Plant/Elevator - $US/bu [$CND/bu in brackets]
DNS [14%]: $5.32 - 5.72 [$7.42 - 7.98] Fall 2025: $5.51 - 5.71 [$7.69 - 7.97]
Durum: $6.00 - 7.00 [$8.37 - 9.77]; Flax: $11.00 - 13.95 [$15.35 - 19.47]
Corn: $3.47 - 3.67 [$4.84 - 5.12]; Fall 2025: $3.80 [$5.30]
Barley Feed: $2.10 - 2.51 [$2.93 - 3.50]; Oats: $2.00 - 2.25 [$2.79 - 3.14]
Soybeans: $8.96 - 9.39 [$12.50 - 13.10]; Canola: $9.04 - 10.17 [$12.62 - 14.19]
Sunflower Oil: 16.8 - 19.6¢ [23.4 - 27.3¢]; NuSun: 17.5 - 19.0¢ [24.4 - 26.5¢]
Peas: Yellow: $7.50 - 8.00 [$10.47 - 11.16]; Green: $9.00 - 10.75 [$12.56 - 15.01]
Pinto: 28.0 - 30.0¢ [39.1 - 41.9¢]; Navy: 30.0¢ [41.9¢]
Black: 28.0 - 30.0¢ [39.1 - 41.9¢]; Kidney Light Red: 46.0¢ [64.2¢]
Kidney Dark Red: 47.0¢ [65.6¢]; Great Northern: 40¢ [55.88¢]
Saskatchewan Farmgate Prices
Prices are FOB farm, unless noted otherwise, as of November 19, 2024. Your local rate may differ.
Basis
Net
Per Bushel
Canola: Prices under Jan at $630
Del Elevator
39 - 63
567 - 590
12.86 - 13.39
New Crop 2025
14 - 38
591 - 615
13.41 - 13.95
Bunge (Del)
Nipawin: $13.23 (Nov); $13.39 (Dec); $13.55 (Jan)
Dixon: $12.94 (Nov); $13.22 (Dec)
Nexera: $16.29 - 16.95 (Dec-Jan); $17.13 (Mar)
Barley
Feed Del Elevator
220 - 218
4.50 - 4.75
FOB Farm
220 - 241
4.80 - 5.25
Wheat
Feed Del Elevator
220 - 271
6.00 - 7.38
FOB Farm
249 - 260
6.76 - 7.08
Milling (Del)
CWRS #1
266 - 291
7.24 - 7.91
CPRS #1
242 - 258
6.60 - 7.01
Durum
313 - 319
8.51 - 8.69
Flax
$16.75 - 17.50; $16.50 del
Oats
$4.00 - 4.50; Feed: $2.75 - 3.25
Soybeans: $11.00 - 11.50
Lentils
Laird #1: 55.5 - 58¢ del; #2: 56 - 57¢; 55.5 - 60¢ del; X3: 47 - 53.5¢ del
#3: 37 - 49.5¢ del
Eston: #1: 53 - 54¢; 47.5 - 50¢ del; #2: 46.5 - 48.5¢ del; X3: 38.5 - 40.5¢ del
#3: 34.5 - 36.5¢ del
Richlea: #1: 54.5 - 56¢; 51.5 - 53¢ del; #2: 50.5 - 54¢ del
X3: 42.5 - 43.5¢ del; #3: 32.5 - 38.5¢ del
Crimson: #2+: 32 - 33¢; 32 - 34¢ del; X3: 28 - 30.5¢ del; #3: 24 - 27.5¢ del
Canary Seed
30 - 31¢; 30.75 - 32¢ del
Peas
Green: $15.50 - 16.00; 15.00 - 16.00 del
Yellow: $10.25 - 10.75; $9.50 - 11.00 del
Feed Peas: $10.60 - 10.90 del
Chickpeas
Kabuli (del): 10mm: 40.75 - 45.25¢; 9mm: 39.75 - 44.5¢; 8mm: 37.75 - 42.25¢
Desi (del): 25.75 - 33.0¢
Mustard
Yellow: 39 - 40¢; 41 - 43¢ del
Brown: 31 - 32¢; 32 - 33¢ del
Oriental: 30 - 32¢ del
Alberta Farmgate Prices
Prices are FOB farm, unless noted otherwise, as of November 19, 2024. Your local rate may differ.
Basis
Net
Per Bushel
Canola: Prices under Jan at $630
Del Elevator
38 - 61
569 - 592
12.90 - 13.42
Bunge:
38
592
13.42
New Crop 2025
29 - 47
582 - 600
13.19 - 13.61
Nexera (Del): $16.27 - 16.60 (Nov); $16.38 - 16.71 (Dec-Jan)
Barley
Feed Del Elevator
214 - 290
4.67 - 6.31
Lethbridge
288 - 290
6.27 - 6.31
Vermillion
265 - 270
5.77 - 5.88
Rycroft
218 - 235
4.75 - 5.12
FOB Farm
255 - 262
5.55 - 5.70
Malt Del not quoted
Wheat
Feed Del Elevator
230 - 310
6.26 - 8.44
Lethbridge
297 - 305
8.08 - 8.30
Red Deer
302 - 310
8.22 - 8.38
Viking
239 - 248
6.50 - 6.75
Fall 2025
220 - 229
5.99 - 6.23
Milling (Del)
CWRS #1
281 - 296
7.64 - 8.07
Fall 2025
240
6.54
CPRS #2
257 - 275
7.00 - 7.47
Durum
332 - 337
9.04 - 9.17
Oats
Del Elevator
263 - 315
4.05 - 4.86
Edmonton
270 - 315
4.16 - 4.86
Viking
263
4.05
FOB Farm
259 - 292
4.00 - 4.50
Flax
$12.85 del
Corn
$7.42 - 7.57 del
Lentils (Del Sk)
Laird #1: 55.5 - 58¢; #2: 55.5 - 60¢; X3: 47 - 53.5¢; #3: 37 - 49.5¢
Eston: #1: 47.5 - 50¢; #2: 46.5 - 48.5¢; X3: 38.5 - 40.5¢; #3: 34.5 - 36.5¢
Richlea: #1: 51.5 - 53¢; #2: 50.5 - 54¢; X3: 42.5 - 43.5¢; #3: 32.5 - 38.5¢
Crimson: #2+: 32 - 34¢; X3: 28 - 30.5¢; #3: 24 - 27.5¢
Peas
Green: $15.00 - 16.00 del Sk
Yellow: $9.50 - 11.00 del Sk
Feed: $10.07 - 11.16 del
Canaryseed
30 - 31¢ Fob Farm Sk; 30.75 - 32¢ del Sk
Mustard (del Sk)
Yellow: 41 - 43¢
Brown: 32 - 33¢
Oriental: 30 - 32¢
Delivered Montana Elevator - $US/bu [$CND/bu in brackets ]
DNS [14%]: $5.27 - 6.02 [$7.35 - 8.40]
Durum: $6.00 - 7.50 [$8.37 - 10.47]
HRW [13%]: $4.78 - 5.43 [$6.67 - 7.58]
Barley
Feed: $3.55 [$4.95]; Malt: not quoted
From the Floor
Opinion derived from traders
The term Doctor Copper is market lingo for this base metal that is reputed to have a "Ph.D. in
economics" because of its ability to predict turning points in the global economy.
Because of copper's widespread applications in most sectors of the economy—from homes and
factories to electronics and power generation and transmission—demand for copper is often viewed as a
reliable leading indicator of economic health. This demand is reflected in the market price of copper.
The price of copper on the CME fell from US$4.49/lb on November 5, the date of the American election,
to $4.16 today.
Gold and silver prices were also weaker in the past several days.
Street Smart - Ty Kreitmen
The considerable reduction in profits for crop producers has weakened farm balance sheets.
Ty Kreitman is an ag economist with the Kansas City Federal Reserve.
International Trade Nervous
Trade-wise, things are operating fairly smoothly apart from
some union issues. However the American election is putting
uncertainty into the equation. American import tariffs will have a
chilling effect on trade in general.
INTERNET EDITION
Volume 35 Number 13
November 19, 2024
Re-broadcast, re-distribution and/or forwarding of the Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory, including
internally within offices and organizations, is prohibited.
Sell Flax - John Duvenaud
The flax market has shrunk drastically since those
heady days of $40/bu flax in 2021. Petfood
manufacturers reviewed how much flax they actually
have to use, plus, in a few cases, bought ahead.
Opportunistic merchants jumped into the business
and mostly emerged swearing never to touch flax
again. On top of everything else those great prices
got Russia and Kazakhstan into flax production which
has now taken the European and Chinese business.
Supply fundamentals aren't that bad. We had a
small crop this year - 265,000 tonnes, a fraction of
what we used to grow. Unfortunately demand is also
a fraction of what it used to be.
The good news is that the demand that remains is
from users that really need flax, basically pet food
manufacturers, flax bread bakers and the people that
make those flax capsules you take every morning.
You probably sold some flax off the combine and, if
you're an incremental marketer, you'll be thinking it's
just about time to make another sale. You're right.
Sell the second 20% increment of you 2024 flax
bringing sales to 40%.
Not very many elevators even deal in flax any
more. Allan Johnston Grain Marketing (800-324-
7778) is brokering flax at $17.00/bu fob
Saskatchewan with delivery December through
spring. Human edible flax is moving at $18.00 -
$18.50/bu delivered in Manitoba.
Sell Soybeans
Soybean prices face some serious headwinds.
American production this year was up 10% from
2023, to 124.8 mmt. Total supplies are up 13.4 mmt.
End stocks are projected to be up from 5.7 mmt this
summer to a pretty heavy 15.0 mmt. CBT Nov
soybean futures peaked in April around
US$12.30/bu, bottomed in August at US$9.55 and
now nearby Jan closed today (Tuesday) at US$9.98.
The global picture is just as bearish. Production is
up almost 30 mmt from last year and the carryover
will be at a record level with a 28% stocks/use ratio.
Add in much larger South American seedings and
ideal planting conditions. Brazilian bean plantings are
at 78% this week vs 68% last week and 71% on
average.
Spec funs remain short soybean futures but are in
the process of buying them back.
On the plus side is the increase in use of soyoil for
biofuel. Indonesia has just decided that all biodiesel
must contain 40% palm oil, up from the current 35%.
Farmgate prices are about flat. There is no obvious
trend. A big slug of soybeans moved off the combine
and elevators are settling in to handle what remains
in farmer hands. Most contracts have now been
moved and bids are in the $12.00- $12.50 range. The
crusher is buying at $11/85/bu with delivery
anywhere from next week to early December,
depending on specs.
Sell the second 20% increment of your 2024
soybeans bringing sales to 40%. You might not get
spot delivery but you should be able to deliver within
a couple of weeks.
condition. At this point, the crop is at its best
condition in 6 years.
Futures Mostly Lower
Canola took it on the chin over the past week
with Jan down $28/t. Beanoil is also weak. Palm
oil had a big losing day yesterday, down 3%.
Crude oil is another weak contract, trading under
US$70/barrel.
Conditions in South America are excellent for
the crop now being planted. Rains are general in
both Brazil and Argentina. Brazilian soybean
planting is at 80%, ahead of normal. The South
American crop is projected to increase by 20%
from last year.
The American soybean crush is running at a
record level.
Soymeal has been weak, dropping from
US$351 on October 1 to close at US$288.69
today. Nearby Jan futures closed below $10
today, at US$9.98, down 11 cents/bu.
Wheat contracts are mostly higher, reacting to
rising Black Sea tensions. The United States has
allowed Ukraine to use American long-range
missiles to attack within Russia, and the Russians
don't like that. Threats are escalating. Russia and
Ukraine are major wheat exporters. This is still
just a potential problem but the wheat market is
nervous. Winter wheat is entering dormancy and
USDA will put out their final rating for the season
next week. Minneapolis is up 8 cents/bu on the
week.
Corn is mildly lower. The American harvest is
essentially done. Corn exports are well above
year-ago levels and ethanol production is also
higher. On the other hand seeding is progressing
well in both Brazil and Argentina. Funds have
shifted their futures position from heavily short to
increasingly long.
Oats are mildly lower in quiet trade, just
following corn. There is little new news in oat
markets with the Canadian crop safe in the bin.
Sell Durum
Sell 20% of your 2024 durum production bringing
total sales to 40%.
Elevator bids for #1 CWAD are hovering in the
range of $9.10-$9.25/bu in southwest Saskatchewan
and southern Alberta. Companies are covered for
November and sourcing for their December exports.
There is always a surge of exports prior to the lakes
closing and then elevator bids tend to soften. We
want to be selling into this demand. The market will
remain relatively flat until spring when traders start to
focus on 2025 acreage.
#1 CWAD fob St Lawrence is quoted at US$330/t
and US$315/t fob in Vancouver. This compares to
French durum at US$325/t fob and Spanish durum at
US$300/t fob. In Italy, domestic Italian durum is
trading at US$340-US$350/tonne delivered mill.
Canadian durum is offered at a significant premium to
European values. Algeria is expected to step forward
over the next month for a major tender and there will
be stiff competition from the U.S., Turkey and
Canada.
Smaller markets in Central America appear to be
well covered through March. U.S. millers appear to be
covered through March or April. There isn’t significant
open demand in the short term to drive up prices.
Sell Malting Barley
Sell 20% of your malt barley bringing sales to 40%.
Feed barley in Saskatchewan is trading in the range
of $4.75-$5.25/bu fob farm. Malting barley is trading in
the range of $5.50 to $6.25/bu delivered.
Lethbridge feedlots are buying feed barley around
$6.25/bu. In Southern and Central Alberta, the end
user feed bids are equivalent to malt barley bids.
The world market is rather quiet. Canadian two-row
malting barley is offered at US$260/t fob the West
Coast. In Ireland, malt barley is trading at US$275/t
delivered. French two row malting barley is quoted at
US$260/t fob. Danish malting barley is trading for
US$244/t. Australian malting barley is US$255-
US$265/t fob depending on variety and quality.
Canadian malting barley is uncompetitive on the world
market.
It’s prudent to sell to domestic malting companies
when they have open demand. Once domestic
maltsters fill up, prices will soften to compete with
Australian and European barley.
Sell Feed Wheat
Sell 20% of your feed wheat, bringing total sales to
40%.
In Southern and Central Alberta, wheat for feed
usage is trading at $295-$320/t delivered. The
average Alberta elevator bid for No.1 and #2 CWRS
13.0 protein is $282/t. Sell milling quality wheat into
feed channels.
Saskatchewan producers also need to compare
local feed bids fob farm with local elevator bids
Producers with feed wheat will receive the same
return as producers with milling wheat by selling into
domestic feed channels. Domestic feed demand
moves through a seasonal high in December due to
peak cattle on feed numbers. We want to be selling
into this strength.
World Supply/Demand: USDA - Nov 8, 2024
Corn
Wheat
23/24
24/25
24/25
23/24
24/25
24/25
Nov
Oct
Nov
Nov
Oct
Nov
Production
1299.10
1217.19
1219.40
790.42
794.08
794.73
Supply
1533.70
1529.84
1533.62
1064.01
1060.26
1060.98
Feed
771.18
774.27
776.50
158.60
151.80
152.90
Other
448.30
449.05
452.98
639.16
650.74
650.51
Total Use
1219.48
1223.32
1229.48
797.76
802.54
803.41
Carryout
314.22
306.52
304.14
266.25
257.72
257.57
Soybeans
Production
394.73
428.92
425.40
Supply
495.74
541.29
537.82
Crush
331.13
346.38
346.15
Other
53.05
56.34
56.13
Total Use
384.18
402.72
402.28
Carryout
112.42
134.65
131.74
Note: Units in million metric tonnes
USDA'S November global supply/demand was neutral
to slightly bullish corn, bullish soybeans and neutral to
slightly bearish wheat.
Corn ending stocks were reduced by 2.5 mmt. World
soybean supplies were reduced by almost 3.5 mmt.
Wheat ending stocks were reduced marginally.
Pea Exports Strong
Bulk pea shipments by vessel were 1.12 million
tonnes through week 14 of the crop year, up from
720,000 tonnes at the same time one year ago,
according to the Canadian Grain Commission.
Container shipments will add another 30- 40% to that
total. India was the biggest buyer, purchasing 387,100
tonnes. China took 222,400 tonnes. The pace of exports
is well above average.
India currently allows duty-free imports of yellow peas
but that is slated to end on Dec 31. There is no special
reason for India to extend the import tax holiday. If they
do not then exports to India will drop significantly.
Indian harvest will start in January and crop conditions
are good.
American Wheat looking Good
US winter wheat planting reached 94% complete this
past week which matches last year’s pace. While still
behind the 5-year average, the crop is off to a great start
with 84% of the crop emerged at 49% good to excellent
